China’s coal demand is expected to grow slightly in 2025, while overall supply and demand dynamics continue to ease, according to the 2024 Annual Report on the Coal Industry released by the China National Coal Association (CNCA) on April 9.
Source: China National Coal Association
China’s coal demand is expected to grow slightly in 2025, while overall supply and demand dynamics continue to ease, according to the 2024 Annual Report on the Coal Industry released by the China National Coal Association (CNCA) on April 9.
In 2024, the country is projected to produce 4.78 billion tonnes of raw coal, a 1.2% year-on-year increase. Coal imports are estimated at 540 million tonnes, up 14.4%, while rail shipments reached 2.82 billion tonnes, rising 2.5% from last year. Coal inventories at major producers grew to 68 million tonnes, up 14%, and stockpiles at thermal power plants hit a record 230 million tonnes, a 12.2% increase.
Thermal coal demand remains strong, driven by growth in coal-fired power generation. Despite rising hydropower and renewables output, coal-fired power is expected to add roughly 100 billion kilowatt-hours this year, supporting continued demand for coal.
In contrast, coal use in the steel and building materials sectors is expected to remain flat or decline slightly, while the chemical industry may see moderate growth. On balance, coal consumption is forecast to rise modestly in 2025.
Coal consumption in China has slowed significantly since the rapid growth of the early 2000s. CNCA spokesperson Zhang Hong noted that while demand surged during the 11th and 12th Five-Year Plan periods, it began to flatten during the 13th plan and is expected to reach a plateau during the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030). "Based on research from several major institutions, coal use is likely to peak around 2028," Zhang said. "But this won’t be a sharp turning point. We expect a prolonged plateau, possibly lasting five to ten years, with small year-to-year fluctuations."
Zhang emphasized that the 15th and 16th plan periods will be critical for transforming China’s coal sector. Rather than expanding capacity, the focus will shift to maintaining stable output—or even reducing it—while improving efficiency and sustainability.
The report also highlights several challenges facing the industry:
Production remains geographically uneven, requiring better national coordination.
Long-distance, high-volume transport is placing added strain on supply logistics.
Sustained high-output operations are accelerating resource depletion in major coal-producing regions, raising concerns over production continuity.
Investment in R&D is low, and the conversion rate of innovation to practical application remains limited.
Despite these challenges, the report notes that the sector has made solid progress in improving quality and efficiency since the start of the current 14th Five-Year Plan. Addressing structural weaknesses will be key to ensuring a more sustainable coal industry as China moves toward its dual carbon goals.
Reproduced article do not represent the position of New Energy Era.